Investment View July 2009
It is now official! After several months of raging battle between the ‘bulls’ and the ‘bears’ about where the stock market was heading, we now seem to have some equilibrium. In one sense this is good news, as it indicates the new reality of the ‘post credit crunch’ world, and to that extent future expectations can be reassessed with a greater degree of confidence. Assuming for the moment that the weight of opinion is fairly evenly balanced, the question for advisers and clients is how long will equity markets continue to drift sideways?
Over the past 20 years UK equities have achieved an average annual return of 7.5%, and long term analysis tells us that equities on average produce a return around 5 to 6% above inflation, taking dividends into account. There is no reason to assume that this will not hold good as a long term future assumption. Inflation looks as though it is going to remain low for some time, and any assets yielding 5% p.a. or better are therefore looking relatively attractive.
However, what we have seen over the last decade is that over short timescales the divergence from the long term average has been excessive, and that makes predicting medium term performance far more precarious. That is why asset allocation is essential, and as our drawdown clients have seen over recent months having the right mix of assets really pays dividends in counteracting the short to medium term unpredictability of equities.
As ‘financial planners’ (and hence at the opposite end of the spectrum from the ‘day traders’) our role has always been providing long term investment advice, which tends towards the contra-cyclical approach. In simple terms that means buying when assets look cheap and selling when they look over priced.
Investment markets are of course made up of lots of ‘players’ not just long term investors like our clients. And so although we appear to have equilibrium involving all the participants that make up the market, the current price still looks relatively attractive for our clients.
The chart below, courtesy of M&G, shows how stock markets have moved in practice over the past 20 years, as measured by the FTSE All-Share Index based on returns from the start of each month over every single one, five and ten year period. It shows the average returns per annum over each of these periods and the likelihood, on average, of investors having made money or lost money in each.

While this simple analysis may offer clients some reassurance, there is no doubt that in the short and medium term equity values will remain volatile. We will therefore continue to take advantage of that where possible, buying into the ‘dips’ and selling the ‘gains’ to consolidate portfolios and pay out withdrawals.
Those investors who have not yet reached retirement or who are in the early stages of drawdown should still maintain a high equity content. The maximum we recommend is 90%, which enables clients to keep some ‘ammo’ in reserve to take advantage of a fall in prices. Lower levels are appropriate for investors with cautious views on investment risk or who have a very high level of dependency on their private retirement fund.
The basic underlying strategy is to ‘harvest’ investment gains during the drawdown period (while avoiding crystallising losses) with a view to a gradual consolidation of the portfolio as clients progress through retirement.
This has worked well and continues to be an approach supported by high level external analysis, such as the European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA) definitive research paper – ‘Rethinking Retirement Income Strategies – How Can We Secure Better Outcomes For Future Retirees’ (Maurer and Somova) of February 2009.
There will continue to be many factors creating a drag on economic recovery. Government debt in the UK has risen to around £800bn which is well above 50% of GDP and the highest level since records began in 1974. Meanwhile, tax receipts fell by 10% in the past year – the biggest fall since 1923. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) predicts that about 15% of high street shops will be empty by the end of 2009. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) sees total UK GDP falling 4.3% in 2009 before growing 1% in 2010 and 1.8% in 2011 implying a slower rate of recovery than was expected and a leading think-tank is now predicting it may take another five years for income per head to return to the level it was before the recession.
All rather gloomy, but don’t forget a lot of that has already been priced into the markets.
There are positive signs as well, for example the Nationwide survey of UK house prices up for the second month out of three. The government is determined to keep the recovery going and it is clear that there will be no tightening of fiscal policy until after the general election. However, the state of the public sector finances is a real worry in the medium term (the words ‘dreadful’ and ‘appalling’ are appearing ever more frequently) and there is a risk that sterling will suffer, putting further pressure on the cost of imports. The flip side (as ever) is that exporters will gain and also the returns on overseas assets may be enhanced.
Inevitably our collective belts will eventually need to be tightened, through reduced public sector spending and increased taxes, and that pain will last for some time. However, as I said in last month’s issue the starting point has been one of relative affluence, and in many cases it will be the future generations that ultimately pay the price through reduced wealth preservation.
Elsewhere, in spite of continuing concerns about the lateness of the action taken by European central bankers the Markit iTraxx Europe Index, an important barometer of European appetite for risk in the credit markets, has improved to a level not seen since before the Lehmans collapse last September. In Germany the IFO index of business sentiment has been rising We are therefore maintaining our strategy of diversify out of the UK into Europe through funds that have a particularly strong pedigree in the Eurozone markets, with the emphasis remaining on ‘large cap’ companies.
In the US interest rates are likely to remain low for some time, but their economy is proving more resilient than many had predicted 6 months ago, and US house prices actually rose in May. The rise in unemployment is showing signs of a slowdown as well. These are important factors for other economies around the world as the US consumer plays such a major part in driving demand. The main emerging economies are also showing plenty of resilience and China saw record sales of cars in recent months.
Stock markets around the world have therefore continued to make progress, as there are signs that the global recession may be past its worst, with improved consumer confidence. This rally is suggesting a ‘V-shaped’ global economic recovery but many analysts still think that is unlikely, and our portfolios that are supporting withdrawals will continue to hold some defensive funds for that reason. The risk of moving to a ‘W-shaped’ recovery is still significant and indicates to us that rebalancing decisions should be more aggressive than might be the norm, taking advantage of shorter term gains.
The problem is deciding where to rebalance into so as to consolidate gains! Interest rates are set to remain low for some time and so cash looks distinctly unattractive. Property and corporate bonds on the other hand are offering much better yields, and well managed funds will look to ensuring that the ‘trade off’ against default risk (which will continue to be an issue until we emerge from the recession) is at an appropriate level.
The emphasis will therefore be on careful asset allocation, regular monitoring and continuing close analysis of the investment strategies of fund managers. We will continue to favour ‘active’ funds against ‘trackers’ and concentrate on those who have scored well on both quantitative and qualitative analysis within their investment sectors. We will not, however, be drawn into a short term performance mindset since many of the investment ‘plays’ by fund managers at stock selection level will take time to achieve their objective.
During recovery periods there will be always be short term winners, but picking them out in advance is impractical. Hindsight is such a wonderful gift and anyone with a rear view mirror can easily pick the winners! Equally, there is a tendency to think about increased security after the event – hence the upswing in demand for products offering guarantees, at a time when these guarantees are at their most expensive and in a period when they are least likely to be needed, since the market had already fallen. Closing the stable doors after the horse has bolted springs to mind!
Of course for some investors the grass will seem greener on the other side, but believe me (and other investment professionals) – this is just an optical illusion – a trick of the light – so don’t be fooled! As the Financial Services Authority will tell you, recent past performance offers absolutely no guide whatsoever to future returns.
Steve Patterson
Investment and Managing Director